Everyone is watching Texas and Michigan. As a pollster, I know where the real story is

With less than a month until the , everyone has suddenly become an expert on Texas and Michigan.

I understand why.

Texas has Texas state Rep. James Talarico, the charismatic trying to do something Democrats have dreamed about for decades: turn Texas blue. He is running against former attorney general Ken Paxton, a Republican carrying enough political baggage to fill the overhead bins on a 747.

FOX NEWS POLL: ITS A LONE STAR SENATE SHOWDOWN BETWEEN TALARICO AND PAXTON

Michigan has Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed. Whatever you think of his progressive politics, he is a rare political talent: charismatic, compelling, and very good at attracting attention. His race against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers has become one of the most closely watched contests in America.

Watch them both.

FOX NEWS POLL: MICHIGAN VOTERS SPLIT BETWEEN EL-SAYED AND ROGERS

But if you want to understand what is actually happening in this election, I'd look somewhere else.

I'd look at .

FOX NEWS POLL: TUREK, HINSON IN CLOSE IOWA SENATE RACE

Because Iowa doesn't come with quite the same political celebrity. It doesn't have the irresistible "Texas turns blue!" storyline. It doesn't have Michigan's unusual mix of personalities and politics.

It just has an extraordinarily close Senate race. And that may make it a much better test of the country.

DEMOCRATS ARE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE IN THE SENATE, BUT SHOULDN'T CELEBRATE YET

Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek and Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson are separated by essentially nothing. The RealClearPolitics polling average has Turek at 45.9% and Hinson at 45.2%.

Less than one point.

12 RACES SCRAMBLE SENATE BATTLEFIELD AS DEMOCRATS EYE COMEBACK

Fox found Turek ahead by two. The New York Times/Siena found Hinson ahead by one. Suffolk University has Turek ahead by four.

Pick your poll. The conclusion is basically the same: Iowa is up for grabs.

LEE CARTER: POLLS SAY DEMOCRATS COULD SWAMP REPUBLICANS. AS A POLLSTER, I HAVE A QUESTION

And that should get our attention.

Because something much bigger than one Senate seat is happening underneath these numbers. Americans aren't simply unhappy with Republicans.

DAVID MARCUS: IN DAYTON, OHIO, BOTH PARTIES FACE BITTER POLITICAL DESPONDENCY

They're unhappy with everybody.

A new AP-NORC poll found only about two in 10 registered voters believe either political party is focused on helping people like them.

Think about that.

After billions of dollars in advertising, thousands of speeches, endless cable-news appearances and approximately 47 million fundraising texts asking if I personall