Fox News Poll: Cost-of-living concerns weigh on GOP in midterms

When voters rate the economy and the president negatively just weeks before Election Day, the incumbent party is vulnerable, and thats certainly the case in the latest Fox News survey.

The economic landscape is stark. Six in 10 voters say the cost of living is their top economic worry, overshadowing government spending (15%), jobs and income inequality (7% each), tariffs (6%) and taxes (5%). 

Majorities rate the economy negatively (74%) and expect it to worsen next year (53%), while two-thirds are dissatisfied with how things are going in the country (66%). Few, 18%, say their family is better off compared to two years ago. Independents say theyre worse off (52%) and think the economy will get worse (70%).

A majority of voters, 55%, say inflation is "not at all" under control. Thats up from a low of 45% earlier this year, and includes 30% of Republicans.

President Donald Trumps lowest job rating is on inflation: 22% approve, a new low. Last summer, 36% approved. Four years ago, before the 2022 midterms, 29% approved of former President Joe Bidens performance on inflation.

Disapproval of the job Trump is doing has reached 77% on inflation, 70% on the economy, 69% on tariffs and 64% on foreign policy. A smaller share, but still a majority, disapprove of his handling of immigration (56% disapprove), while border security is the only issue that is close to positive (50% approve, 50% disapprove).

Trumps overall job approval is 36%, his lowest ever in a Fox News survey for either term. It had been holding steady at 39% since May. The decline is mainly driven by decreases among voters under age 45, those with annual household income below $50,000, non-White voters, and those without a college degree.

Approval stands at a low of 76% among Republicans. Thats down 3 points since last month, 12 points since September 2025, and 16 points since early in his second term (March 2025).

As in most midterms, voters are prone to punish the party in power: 7 in 10 say they will vote to send a message to Trump, with nearly twice as many expressing opposition (47%) as support (25%).

If the election were today, 54% of voters say they would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 45% would support the Republican. That is outside the margin of error and is a wider lead than last month when Democrats were ahead by 51%-44%. The race narrows among those saying they are certain to vote, with the Democratic candidate ahead by 52%-46%.

The survey finds about the same number self-identify as Democrats (43%) and Republicans (41%), and both parties feel equally certain about voting (62% and 64% respectively), while more Democrats (61%) than Republicans (52%) say they are extremely interested in the election.

Party loyalty is solid: 98% of Democrats support their partys candidate, and 94% of Republicans back theirs. Independents favor the Democrats by 26 points.

The Democratic candidate is the choice among Whites with a degree, those under age 45, women, union households and Hispanics. The Republican is ahead among Whites without a college degree (White men without a degree in particular), those 65 and over, voters who attend religious services regularly, military veterans and White evangelical Christians.

While 43% of Hispanic voters supported Trump in the 2024 election, just 31% prefer the Republican candidate this year.

"When the country is this closely divided in terms of partisanship,